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Live To Trade Another Day

July 23, 2014
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Live To Trade Another Day

In traditional investing, risk is viewed as volatility or standard deviation of the asset’s marked to market value. Standard deviation tells you how much an investment’s value will fluctuate from the average return. The more volatile the investment is likely to swing (both positively and negatively) around it’s own historical average, the more risky an investment or asset class is. For example, Chart 1 below shows the normalised returns of Global Equities, as represented by MSCI World Index, versus Global Bonds, as represented by Citigroup Broad Investment Grade Bonds Index. If you had invested $100 in both Global Equities and Global Bonds for the past 10 years, your portfolio value of either would be fairly similar, which is $168...

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Crude Oil Trading Better on Expectations of Inventory Drawdown

July 23, 2014
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Crude Oil Trading Better on Expectations of Inventory Drawdown

September Crude Oil futures are posting a small gain shortly before the release of today’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) supply/demand report. Late last night, the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly report showed a 0.555 million-barrel draw for crude, less than expected. At 10:30 a.m. ET, the EIA will release its latest survey. The report is expected to show a drop in crude stocks, but estimates range from down 2.1 to down 2.9 million barrels. Last week, the report...

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EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for July 23, 2014

July 23, 2014
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EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for July 23, 2014

Daily EUR/USD Technical Analysis Daily EUR/USD The EUR/USD is trading slightly better at the mid-session after breaking to a new contract low earlier in the day. The current price action suggests the market may be oversold and setting up for a possible short-covering driven closing price reversal bottom. Crossing over to the bullish side of a downtrending angle from the 1.3650 top at 1.3470 and overcoming the former low for the year at 1.3476 will be signs of developing...

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis July 22, 2014 Forecast

July 21, 2014
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis July 22, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD was the only currency to move today adding 9 points to trade at 1.0745 back in its trading range of last week. For now, we see the CAD maintaining recent ranges against a host of currencies after this past week’s Bank of Canada event...

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Forex, Commodity Markets Remain Jittery

July 21, 2014
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Forex, Commodity Markets Remain Jittery

Foreign currency and commodity investors remained nervous on Monday because of the geopolitical events in Ukraine and the Gaza strip. On Monday, investors increased positions in the safe haven U.S. Dollar, Japanese Yen and gold markets. Investors remained jittery because of the strained relationship between Ukraine and Russia over...

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EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for July 21, 2014

July 21, 2014
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EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for July 21, 2014

Daily EUR/USD Technical Analysis Daily EUR/USD Last Friday, the EUR/USD broke through the two month low at 1.3502, but buyers came in at 1.3490, triggering a strong rebound rally. The move was proof that the major players were still defending the low of the year at 1.3476. Today, the...

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EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 21 – 25, 2014 Forecast

July 19, 2014
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EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 21 – 25, 2014 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations The EUR/GBP declined for the week to trade at 0.7913 as the euro weakened. Sterling held steady on Friday and remained on track for a big weekly gain against the euro, as investors bet on further divergence in monetary policy between Britain and the euro...

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GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 21 – 25, 2014 Forecast

July 19, 2014
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GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 21 – 25, 2014 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:   The GBP/USD ended the week on a weak note at 1.7071 even though data was stronger for the pound this week. The move away from currencies and indications that the Bank of England would continue to hold fire allowed the currency to fall. Investors will...

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EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 21 – 25, 2014 Forecast

July 19, 2014
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EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 21 – 25, 2014 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The EUR/USD closed at 1.3512 on worried about banking in Portugal and the overall economic recovery of the eurozone. Geopolitical events are overshadowing a light economic calendar ahead of the weekend.   The shooting down of the Malaysian plane over Ukraine and the Israel’s launch of...

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis July 18, 2014 Forecast

July 17, 2014
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis July 18, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD is flat at 1.0743 ahead of the US session where Canada is looking for Foreign Securities numbers but is expected to remain flat as oil prices increase but gold eases. There is no pressure or support on the Lonnie now that the BoC has...

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Technical Overview – EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD, AUDUSD

July 17, 2014
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The US Dollar gained against GBP, JPY and NZD but lost some ground against EUR and AUD on the first trading day of the week, which is full of important economic releases. Investors will now focus on Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s testimony and the release of retail sales...

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Geopolitical Events, Technical Factors Help Boost Crude Oil Futures

July 17, 2014
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Geopolitical Events, Technical Factors Help Boost Crude Oil Futures

September crude oil futures posted another strong rally on Thursday, driven by oversold technical factors and potentially bullish fundamental news. Technically, earlier in the week, the market completed a thirteen session break which exceeded most bearish expectations by 3 to 6 sessions, putting it in the oversold category. Fundamentally,...

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10-Yr U.S. Treasury Notes (TY) Futures Technical Analysis – July 15, 2014 Forecast

July 15, 2014
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10-Yr U.S. Treasury Notes (TY) Futures Technical Analysis – July 15, 2014 Forecast

September 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes are trading slightly better in the pre-market session. On Monday, the market closed on its low, but there was no follow-through to the downside. This could be indicative of a short-term oversold market. After spiking higher last week to 125’15.5, the market has drifted...

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30-Yr U.S. Treasury Bonds (US) Futures Technical Analysis – July 15, 2014 Forecast

July 15, 2014
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30-Yr U.S. Treasury Bonds (US) Futures Technical Analysis – July 15, 2014 Forecast

September 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bonds are trading lower in the pre-market session as investors await the testimony of U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. Traders are likely to react to her testimony if she talks about the central bank’s plan to begin raising interest rates. At this time, the...

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GBP/USD Surges on Jump in U.K. Inflation

July 15, 2014
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GBP/USD Surges on Jump in U.K. Inflation

Trading is light in the Forex and commodity markets today as investors await the testimony of U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen which begins at 10:00 a.m. ET. Traders want to hear whether she maintains her dovish tone, or if she switches gears to a more hawkish outlook. Most...

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NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 14-18, 2014 Forecast

July 13, 2014
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NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 14-18, 2014 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:  The NZD/USD  closed the week at 0.8824 reaching for new highs throughout the week as economic data on the domestic level and Chinese data supported the currency. Over recent weeks there has been much commentary and analysis of what factors have driven the NZ dollar...

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AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 14-18, 2014 Forecast

July 13, 2014
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AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 14-18, 2014 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD held right at the 94 level on lackluster data from China and a significant climb in unemployment this week. The Aussie ended at 0.9401. China will release second quarter GDP data on July 15th. Analysts estimate that output growth picked-up marginally to 7.5%...

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USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 14-18, 2014 Forecast

July 13, 2014
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USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 14-18, 2014 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY inched lower as markets moved to safe haven trading as problems in Portugal weighed on the global economy as well as an increase in tensions between Israel and Palestine which just added to the global stress. The pair ended the week at 101.32....

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E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – July 11, 2014 Forecast

July 11, 2014
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E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – July 11, 2014 Forecast

September E-mini SP 500 Index futures are trading better in the pre-market session. The easing of concerns over Portugal’s banking sector issue seems to have receded, encouraging short-covering and some fresh buying. Traders will be watching quarterly results from Well Fargo (WF) shortly before the opening for direction.  Analysts...

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E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – July 11, 2014 Forecast

July 11, 2014
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E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – July 11, 2014 Forecast

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are called slightly better shortly before the cash market opening. The easing of concerns over Portugal’s banking sector helped give the market a boost in the pre-market session. Just a short while ago, Well Fargo (WF) posted quarterly earnings that met expectations,...

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