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Swiss Vote Cliff Notes: The New Gold Standard Debate – Part 1

November 26, 2014
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Swiss Vote Cliff Notes: The New Gold Standard Debate – Part 1

The Swiss franc was the very last currency to be divorced from the Gold Standard so it perhaps makes sense that the country known for economic soundness and political stability would be the first to seriously consider a second trip to the gold-backed altar.  In order to grasp the true meaning of the upcoming “Save our Swiss Gold” referendum, we must take a quick look back at the history of gold in Swiss society, the power of the IMF, the dynamism of Swiss independence, and the emerging class war between paper stock holders and those concerned about the value of real money in real terms. The Swiss are known for their long tradition of political neutrality, banking acumen, and...

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Low Oil Prices Translate Into Low Gasoline Prices

November 26, 2014
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Low Oil Prices Translate Into Low Gasoline Prices

Low Oil Prices Translate Into Low Gasoline Prices With 24 hours until the OPEC meeting, word is expected to be released today if the members will agree to reduce production quotas. Of course these leaks and rumors may not come to reality at the meeting; they will create volatility in trading today. Crude oil took a big tumble on Tuesday and has recovered a few cents this morning to trade at 74.15 while Brent oil has added 38 cents...

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USDCAD bear bias for 1.1223 and test the key neckline, currently at 1.1180

November 26, 2014
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USDCAD bear bias for 1.1223 and test the key neckline, currently at 1.1180

A dip back lower into the range as expected on Tuesday as we repeat our stated view to our clients that “we still see a negative range theme into late November whilst capped by 1.1328“. Erosion last week below the 1.1266/62 area, alongside the bearish outside Thursday pattern back from trend line resistance (now 1.3325) leaves the range bias lower. Range Parameters: We now see the range defined by 1.1403 and the neckline at 1.1180. Range Breakout Challenge –...

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Comex Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – November 24, 2014 Forecast

November 24, 2014
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Comex Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – November 24, 2014 Forecast

December Comex Gold futures spiked higher on Friday, helping the market close higher for the week. Hedge funds bought gold despite the stronger U.S. Dollar which is a sign that other fundamental factors are driving the market higher at least temporarily. According to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission...

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E-mini Russell 2000 Index (TF) Futures Technical Analysis – November 24, 2014 Forecast

November 24, 2014
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E-mini Russell 2000 Index (TF) Futures Technical Analysis – November 24, 2014 Forecast

December E-mini Russell 2000 Index futures spiked higher earlier in the session, but sellers rejected the move at 1188.50 as the market neared the November 13 main top at 1190.50. Although the index still managed to eke out a better close, the downside momentum created by the weak close...

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Comex High Grade Copper Futures (HG) Technical Analysis – November 24, 2014 Forecast

November 24, 2014
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Comex High Grade Copper Futures (HG) Technical Analysis – November 24, 2014 Forecast

December Comex High Grade Copper futures surged early in the session on Friday, but the market failed to hold on to most of its gains, suggesting there are still sellers in there defending the upside. Daily March Comex High Grade Copper The main range is 2.9500 to 3.1035. Its...

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USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, November 24-28, 2014, Forecast

November 22, 2014
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USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, November 24-28, 2014, Forecast

USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, November 24-28, 2014, Forecast Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:   The USD/CAD will begin the new week at 1.1233 coming off its recent high in excess of 1.135 as the US dollar gained momentum. The Canadian dollar climbed to the highest level this month after inflation rose...

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GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, November 24-28, 2014, Forecast

November 22, 2014
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GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, November 24-28, 2014, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:   The GBP/USD dipped on Friday to trade at 1.5658 after a week of mixed data as public borrowing soared above expectations on Friday. The pound is weighed down by the strong US dollar. Sterling cut losses to turn flat on the day against the dollar...

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EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, November 24-28, 2014, Forecast

November 22, 2014
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EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, November 24-28, 2014, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The EUR/USD fell 150 points to trade at 1.2391 after comments from Mario Draghi and the strong US dollar after a flow of positive data in the US hit the wires all week. In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve ended a bond-buying program as scheduled...

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Comex High Grade Copper Futures (HG) Technical Analysis – November 20, 2014 Forecast

November 20, 2014
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Comex High Grade Copper Futures (HG) Technical Analysis – November 20, 2014 Forecast

Just when you thought the chart pattern indicated sellers had returned to the December Comex High Grade Copper market, buyers came in at 2.9900 to defend the bottoms at 2.9820 and 2.9640. This prevented a possible washout toward the March 19 low of the year at 2.8845. Daily December...

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GBPUSD bear bias with stall at 1.5737; risk through 1.5646 for 1.5590

November 20, 2014
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GBPUSD bear bias with stall at 1.5737; risk through 1.5646 for 1.5590

A better rebound effort than anticipated Wednesday, but despite a nudge at retrace resistance at 1.5725, the better barrier at 1.5735 peak has capped. This leaves bearish pressures intact for a roll lower to the range, given the push last week through chart/ 61.8% retrace support 1.5750/20 and the...

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US Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – November 20, 2014 Forecast

November 20, 2014
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US Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – November 20, 2014 Forecast

December U.S. Dollar Index futures closed slightly better on Wednesday but remained inside Monday’s wide range. The initial reaction to the Fed minutes drove the market lower, however, buyers came in to support the market, triggering a rebound rally into the close. Traders must have realized the minutes were...

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DAX Forecast November 18, 2014, Technical Analysis

November 18, 2014
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DAX Forecast November 18, 2014, Technical Analysis

The DAX market bounced during the session on Monday, as the €9150 level continues offer support. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment numbers come out today, and as a result we feel that there could be a bit of volatility. If those numbers are better than expected, this market should...

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Nikkei Forecast November 18, 2014, Technical Analysis

November 18, 2014
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Nikkei Forecast November 18, 2014, Technical Analysis

The Nikkei fell hard during the course of the day on Monday, plowing into the ¥17,000 level again. This is an area that has a significant amount of support, and that support runs all the way down to the ¥16,500 level at the very least. Because of this, we...

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Comex High Grade Copper Futures (HG) Technical Analysis – November 18, 2014 Forecast

November 18, 2014
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Comex High Grade Copper Futures (HG) Technical Analysis – November 18, 2014 Forecast

For the third time in a week, December Comex High Grade Copper futures pounded a Fibonacci level only to be met by strong selling pressure. For the second time in three days, the selling was strong enough to post a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. The main range...

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EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 17-21, 2014, Forecast

November 16, 2014
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EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 17-21, 2014, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The EUR/USD soared late in the day on Friday on weakness in the US dollar after the release of eurozone CPI and GDP followed by US retail sales. Eurozone data met expectations although the forecasts were pretty low. In the US retail sales printed well...

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GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 17-21, 2014, Forecast

November 16, 2014
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GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 17-21, 2014, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:  The GBP/USD fell most of the week after disappointing data and comments from Bank of England Governor Carney. The BoE inflation report was pretty negative showing low inflation ahead as the BoE reduced growth outlook for 2015.   The pound continued to move lower against the...

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USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 17-21, 2014, Forecast

November 16, 2014
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USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 17-21, 2014, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/CAD fell 81 points to trade at 1.1287 as the CAD was supported by a rise in gold prices, a slight recovery in oil futures and the dip in the US dollar. The Canadian dollar closed sharply higher Friday as data showed manufacturing shipments...

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DAX Forecast November 12, 2014, Technical Analysis

November 12, 2014
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DAX Forecast November 12, 2014, Technical Analysis

The DAX as you can see went back and forth during the course of the day on Tuesday, essentially forming a neutral candle. With that being the case, we think we are still in consolidation until we get above the €9500 handle, and if we break out above there...

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Nikkei Forecast November 12, 2014, Technical Analysis

November 12, 2014
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Nikkei Forecast November 12, 2014, Technical Analysis

The Nikkei as you can see broke higher during the course of the session on Tuesday, showing signs that we are ready to continue to go much higher, probably heading to the ¥20,000 level given enough time. With that being the case, we continue to buy the Nikkei on...

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